From Bud Conrad, The Casey Report:
The amount of loans being provided by our banking system is a good reflector of the strength of our economy. Below is a big-picture view that shows the total loans in the U.S. as the Fed reports in its H.8 each week.
We can see that loans outstanding declined at a rapid rate at the beginning of the current great recession, but there seems to be a recovery in the little jump at the end of the chart, as highlighted by the two small black arrows. A little closer look shows the Consumer Loans segment is the source of the optimism that we see in the total.
The Consumer Loans figure shows an impossible jump of $360 billion in a one-time change in April 2010, in the dashed blue line. Just graphically you can see the jump is not consistent with history. The correct conclusion is that consumers didn't go on a $360 billion borrowing binge in one month. The change was from...
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