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Top manager Grantham issues his scariest market forecast yet
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Monday, December 05, 2011
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From Zero Hedge:

While we will leave readers alone when reading what the GMO head has dubbed the "shortest quarterly letter ever," we want to emphasize one point, namely Grantham's projection of how the market will perform in the next 10 years. The squeamish may want to look away:

"No Market for Young Men."

Historians would notice that all major equity bubbles (like those in the U.S. in 1929 and 1965 and in Japan in 1989) broke way below trend line values and stayed there for years. Greenspan, neurotic about slight economic declines while at the same time coasting on Volcker's good work, introduced an era of effective overstimulation of markets that resulted in 20 years of overpriced markets and abnormally high profit margins.

In this, Greenspan has been aided by Bernanke, his acolyte, who has continued his dangerous policy. The first of the two great bubbles that broke on their watch did not reach trend at all in 2002, and the second, in 2009 – known by us as the first truly global bubble – took only three months to recover to trend. This pattern is unique. Now, with wounded balance sheets, perhaps the arsenal is empty and the next bust may well be like the old days.

GMO has looked at the 10 biggest bubbles of the pre-2000 era and has calculated that it typically takes...

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More from Jeremy Grantham:

Jeremy Grantham: Lessons every investor should know

Top manager Grantham: "The S&P 500 is worth no more than 950"

Top manager Grantham turns bearish on stocks... Says market is "badly overpriced"

Topics: Guru | Bubbles | Investing
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