By Richard Russell in Dow Theory Letters:
A dull day on the stock market, but I see a lot of excitement elsewhere. Dollar sinking, and the bonds sinking with the buck, but I thought the big story was the breakout of GDX. My PTI was unchanged [yesterday]. This together with declining volume suggests the market is losing upside momentum. We had a 90% upside day yesterday with no follow through today. The market seems to sense the danger of a new high in the Dow unconfirmed by the transports. Thus the market backed off today and surveyed the scene.
The real drama is being played out by the dollar and the bonds. As the bonds back off, interests rates rise which is the last thing the Fed wants. As I've said before, "everything is alright as long as the bond market says it is." The bond market no longer says it is. Keep one eye on the dollar and the other on the bonds.
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More from Richard Russell on the markets:
Richard Russell's take on the B.S. stress tests
Why the Fed is scared to death of surging gold prices
If you're long stocks, make sure to read this from Richard Russell