From Conversations With Casey:
If I were a foreigner and I already owned massive amounts of U.S. debt, would I want to buy that much more? That's especially questionable when any intelligent person can see that interest rates are being artificially suppressed. That makes buying this debt a guaranteed loss. It just doesn't make any sense to me.
The Chinese have, say, $2 trillion in foreign-denominated reserves, of which they say about $1.4 trillion is U.S. paper. They realize they're holding a burning match; they want to get rid of what they have, not buy more. But here's the scary thing: even if the Chinese lent the U.S. all their $2 trillion of FX, it would only cover this year's U.S. borrowing. Where is the U.S. going to get next year's? Because next year, it's going to need even more.
Let me be as clear as possible. There's no way out of this without major structural changes. It's not going to be just a disaster...
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