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A big reason the rally may continue
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Tuesday, September 22, 2009
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From The Pragmatic Capitalist:

According to Jeff Saut and Raymond James the recently “overbought” readings in the S&P 500 could in fact be positive signs:

Recently much has been made about the S&P 500 being roughly 20% above its 200-day moving average, the widest margin since 1983. Accordingly, we went back and studied that timeframe, as well as the 1975 timeframe, given that both of those periods marked the beginning of new bull markets.

Looking carefully at the nearby charts from our research affiliate Credit Suisse, we see that the S&P 500 first achieved the 20% “spread” in November of 1982, yet stayed some 20% above its 200-DMA until May of 1983. Clearly, there were pullbacks over that timeframe, but they were all shallow and brief.


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